Zenit St. Petersburg Unlikely to Advance to Champions Cup Quarterfinals

Zenit St. Petersburg's advancement to the Champions League Group of 16 was anything but graceful after barely surviving the group stage. St. Petersburg became the first team in history to advance with just six points.

Zenit, after losing to Austria Wien 4-1, needed help from Atletico de Madrid to advance. Porto, in third place with five points, could have leapfrogged past Zenit and advanced instead. Atletico defeated Porto 2-0, thereby preserving Zenit's one point lead.

As runner-up of Group G, Zenit will draw its next opponent on Monday. Right now, none of the seven options are appealing.

The possible adversaries? Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Chelsea, Manchester United, Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid. St. Petersburg will be considered the underdog against each team.

Zenit can't play Atletico because both teams advanced from the same group.

The Mirror's Miguel Delaney posted his Champions League power rankings, listing Zenit No. 16. The Bleacher Report's Karl Matchett ranks Zenit one spot higher at No. 15, ahead of Olympiacos. However, Matchett and The Mirror agree Zenit is unlikely to advance.

An inability to capitalize on scoring opportunities has plagued Zenit for the past two months, justifying its rankings. Zenit's inability to finish games jeopardizes its chances of repeating its 2008 magic when it won the UEFA Cup and the UEFA Super Cup.

In the earlier stages of the Champions League, Zenit easily overwhelmed Nordsjaelland and Pacos Ferreira.

Since entering the Group stage, Zenit has managed just one win, 1-0 over Porto. Although Zenit lost to Atletico 3-1 its first game, St. Petersburg fought Atletico to a draw in the rematch, proving it could compete with the best.

Then everything changed, starting with a 2-1 to seventh place Amkar Perm on November 2.

After starting slow in the Russian Premier League, Zenit surged into first place. But in the past five matches, Zenit has gone 1-2-2, letting Lokomotiv Moscow creep into a tie for first place. Spartak Moscow sits in third place with one point behind.

Zenit's slump bled into its upcoming game against Austria, who had yet to win a match in the group stage.

St. Petersburg held a 1-0 lead, controlling the ball most of the first half, but collapsed in the second. Zenit allowed Austria's Philipp Hosiner and Tomas Jun to score one goal each in an eight-minute span, and Austria never looked back.

Even Austria's coach Nena Bjelica was surprised by how flat and uninspired Zenit played.

"We deserved this victory though the scoreline is a bit flattering," Bjelica said. "Zenit didn't play at their best but we did well to punish them."

According to Delaney's rankings, Zenit's best chance of advancing would be to draw PSG. However, Matchett's rankings suggest Chelsea, who won its group with 12 points.

In the end, Zenit faces an uphill battle no matter which team it draws. In fact, every group winner, even Atletico, hopes to play Zenit, believing Zenit will be an easy victory. If Zenit somehow advances, it will mark the largest upset of this year's Champions League.

However, considering its recent string of luck, Zenit will probably draw Manchester United or Real Madrid.

Recap: Dartmouth Football Finishes Season with 28-24 Win over Princeton

Dartmouth’s Class of 2014 finished its career with a stunning upset against Princeton (8-2, 6-1 Ivy). Players celebrated after Dalyn Williams ’16’s kneel down sealed the 28-24 victory with snow angels and somersaults as the snow accumulated on the field.

“I’ve very proud of the group,” head coach Buddy Teevens said. “It was a great win for us and a great win for our program.”

Dartmouth now leads the overall series 46-43-4 after snapping Princeton’s eight-game win streak and preventing Princeton from seizing full control of the Ivy championship. 

“We didn’t do enough,” junior Quinn Epperly said. “We lost. It’s a terrible way to end the season for these seniors. It really tarnishes a lot of what we did over the year.”

With 23 wins, including 16 conference games, the Class of 2014 finished its career with the most wins for any class in 15 years and defeated Princeton all four years.

Princeton entered having lost to Dartmouth the previous three years. But it seemed Princeton, ranked No. 19 in the FCS Coaches Poll, seemed prepared to break the losing streak with its prolific scoring offense. Princeton’s only loss prior to Saturday was 29-28 to Lehigh.

Epperly led Princeton’s offense in scoring at least 50 points in five of the last eight games. In Princeton’s game against Cornell, Epperly set an NCAA record with 29 straight completions to start a game. 

“We knew they had the best offense coming in and we thought we had the best defense coming in, so we knew something’s got to give,” Chrustic said. “If everybody just does their job and doesn’t bite on some fancy things, we’ll do well.”

Last week, Princeton demolished Yale 59-23, earning a share of the Ivy League championship, its 10th in program history and first since 2006. It also broke the Ivy League single-season scoring record when senior Philip Bhaya returned an interception 34 yards for the score with five quarters to go.

“We already felt like we won the title,” head coach Bob Surace said. “We beat the team [Harvard] we tied with. Dartmouth is a good team and it was a toe-to-toe battle but they got us at the end.” 

But on Saturday night, Princeton scored just 24 points despite running 104 plays on offense, the most against Dartmouth in at least 40 years. Princeton finished the year with an Ivy League scoring record to 437 points. 

Dartmouth built up a 21-0 lead, but almost lost it when Princeton reeled off 21 unanswered points to tie the game early in the third. Williams scored a 17-yard touchdown on the ground midway through the third for what would turn out to be the game-winning score as Princeton could respond with only a field goal.

The game opened up with a three-and-out by both offenses. Williams tried to find Bo Patterson ’15 deep on third down but Patterson was unable to secure possession before stepping out of bounds while Evan Chrustic ’15 sacked Epperly on third down to force a Princeton punt.

Situated at midfield after Princeton’s punt, Dominick Pierre ’14 broke two big runs of 11 and 34 yards to put Dartmouth at the three. Two goal-line plays later, Pierre powered into the end zone from one yard out, putting Dartmouth on top 7-0. 

On the drive, Pierre surpassed 1,000 yards rushing for the season, and became the first Dartmouth player in program history to score a rushing touchdown in every game.

After another Princeton three-and-out, Williams tried to hit Robbie Anthony ’14 on the corner but sophomore Matt Arends intercepted the pass.

On Princeton’s ensuing drive, Epperly rolled left on the play-action and tried to find junior Connor Kelley. Chase Womack ’14 jumped on the underthrown pass but dropped the potential pick-six. Dartmouth held strong when Epperly threw to senior Roman Wilson on fourth down and Troy Donahue ’15 knocked the ball out of Wilson’s hands.

Dartmouth was unable to capitalize on the turnover on downs, going three-and-out after Williams misfired to Jordan Are ’15. 

Dartmouth was given a second chance when Princeton was flagged for roughing the kicker, placing Dartmouth at midfield. However, Dartmouth went backwards fast after a holding penalty on first down and Williams was sacked on second. Dartmouth almost converted the third-and-27 when Williams heaved it deep to Patterson, but the ball flew through Patterson’s outstretched arms.

On Dartmouth’s next drive after a Princeton three-and-out, Williams located Patterson deep down the right sideline for 56 yards, increasing Dartmouth’s lead to 14. Patterson caught the ball at the 19 and fought off a Princeton defender the rest of the way.

Epperly responded on Princeton’s next attempt with a laser to senior Des Smith deep across the middle to the Dartmouth 43. Epperly was fortunate when an interception was ruled incomplete when the Dartmouth defender was ruled out of bounds despite maintaining possession. Chrustic deflected Epperly’s fourth-down pass at the line, giving Dartmouth the ball at its 17.

Dartmouth mounted its longest drive of the game, starting when Kyle Bramble ’16 went up the middle on Dartmouth’s first play before cutting to the left sideline and running 41 yards. Williams finished off the drive with a five-yard read-option touchdown run, running untouched through a massive hole in the middle, extending Dartmouth’s lead to 21.

For Princeton’s next drive, head coach Bob Surace pulled Epperly for junior Connor Michelson. Michelson fared no better after going three-and-out when Eric Wickham ’15 delivered a massive hit to Michelson’s blindside, sacking him to force a Princeton punt.

Dartmouth’s attempt to increase its lead ended when Dean Bakes ’14 was unable to pull in Williams pass, forcing Dartmouth to punt.

Surace reinserted Epperly, but also kept Michelson on the field in order to run a trick play. Epperly handed the ball off to Michelson, who rolled right and found a receiver for the first. Michelson was then pulled out, and Epperly continued marching Princeton down the field until Wilson took Epperly’s pitch five yards into the end zone. With just under five minutes in the first half, Princeton cut Dartmouth’s lead to 21-7.

Dartmouth’s offense was unable to find its rhythm and run time off the clock. During the punt, Dartmouth originally forced a fumble but the officials ruled the ball dead due to lack of forward progress.

Princeton’s luck stayed alive as time ticked down. Two major penalties gave Princeton 30 free yards, including one that should have been offset by a false start from Princeton’s right tackle, setting Princeton up at the Dartmouth 34.

Epperly misfired twice to wide-open receivers in the end zone before hitting junior Seth DeValve at the one. Epperly pushed the ball into the end zone to cut Dartmouth’s lead to seven with 10 seconds left in the half.

Like the opening drives of the first half, both offenses went three-and-out for their second-half opening drive. 

Dartmouth’s opening drive ended when Williams was sacked by senior Elijah Mitchell. Williams was hurt on the play and left for one series.

Midway through the third quarter, the snow started falling as Epperly hit junior Matt Costello for 30 yards to tie the score at 21. During the drive, Princeton converted twice on fourth-and-1. 

After a Dartmouth three-and-out, Princeton drove to its 44, and on fourth down, Epperly rolled right and was stopped short of the first. On every previous fourth down attempt, Epperly just did a quarterback sneak.

Williams reentered the game and found Patterson for a big first down on the right sideline. Pierre then broke a tackle and bounced outside before going out at the 17. On the next play, Williams scored to make the score 28-21 with 4:51 left in the third. 

On the scoring play, Williams kept the ball and ran right before making the cutback to the left and sprinting the width of the field. After outrunning sophomore Anthony Gaffney, who was the only Princeton defender in position to stop Williams, Williams dove for the score, putting the ball just inside the left pylon.

On Princeton’s ensuing drive, Cody Fulleton ’16 knocked the ball loose from Mills, and Donahue emerged from the massive pileup with the ball at the 49.

Williams marched the offense down the field quickly, finding Pierre in the flat for a big gain that put Dartmouth at the Cornell 24. A holding penalty and a sack pushed Dartmouth back, and on fourth down at the 31, Williams tried to find Are in the end zone but underthrew him under pressure, turning the ball over on downs.

Princeton went three-and-out after Dartmouth knocked away two Epperly passes.

The snowfall stopped by the beginning of the fourth quarter as Dartmouth’s drive started at the Cornell 46 while the temperature dropped below freezing. Dartmouth’s drive ended quickly after Williams launched the ball deep into the end zone and Princeton intercepted it.

Princeton reached midfield but Epperly’s pass sailed through his receiver’s hands on third down.

Dartmouth was unable to sustain a drive after Williams was sacked on third down. 

Princeton very quickly marched down the field, breaking into the red zone after starting with the ball at the Dartmouth 48. The snow started once again as Princeton lined up for a fourth-down attempt.

Epperly’s pitch to Wilson was good for the first down, putting Princeton at the four. Princeton was unable to punch the ball into the end zone and sophomore Nolan Bieck’s 23-yard field goal cut Dartmouth’s lead to four with 6:36 remaining.

Despite an excellent return by Womack to the Dartmouth 39, Williams was unable to spark the offense and run time off the clock, punting back to Dartmouth with 5:45 left.

Chrustic knocked down Epperly’s third-down pass, forcing Princeton to punt with 4:22 left.

With the ball at the 10 and the snow falling heavier and sticking on the field, Williams broke free for 37 yards up the middle. With time on its side, Dartmouth started using the entire play clock between each play. 

On third down, Williams pitched the option to Brian Grove, who raced to the Cornell 27. Dartmouth turned the ball over on downs with 45 seconds left after Pierre was stopped for a four yard loss on fourth down.

Starting with one timeout and needing to race 76 yards to win the game, Epperly threw two incompletions before Garrett Waggoner ’13 intercepted Epperly’s third-down pass, icing the win with 24 seconds remaining.

At one point, the snowfall was so thick that Epperly admitted he was unable to reach the signals from the sideline and missed a couple reads. 

Chrustic knocked three of Epperly’s passes at the line as Dartmouth’s defensive line harassed Epperly all afternoon.

“That was just the most fun I’ve ever had playing football,” Chrustic said. “It snowed and I thought that was to our advantage. It was such a great atmosphere. Best game all year.” 

Pierre earned his fifth 100-yard rushing game of the season after running 112 yards on 28 carries with a long of 35. Williams added another 57 yards and two scores. 

Princeton’s leading rusher was Epperly, who kept the ball 20 times for 41 yards. Mills was second on the team with just 30 yards on the ground.

Overall, Dartmouth outran Princeton 239 to 140. However, Princeton outgained Dartmouth 403-331 in total offense as Dartmouth passed for just 92 yards. 

Williams completed just four of 15 for 92 yards, two interceptions and the big 56-yard score to Patterson. However, Williams made plays when most needed.

“I think I was efficient at making plays but not efficient enough,” Williams said. “The majority of the game, I was taking shots and it didn’t go our way every time. But at the end of the day, we won.”

By contrast, Epperly threw 56 times, completing 26, for 242 yards and two scores. DeValve provided Epperly the most consistent target, pulling in nine passes for 115 yards.

“We didn’t execute well enough,” Epperly said. “I didn’t throw the ball well enough. They were very physical upfront.”

Neither team did well on third down as Princeton converted six of 24 while Dartmouth went four of 15. Princeton compensated by attempting eight fourth-down tries and converted five of them.

“They made more plays,” Surace said. “Field position hurt us. It was a tough day to throw and [Dartmouth] ran the ball better than we did. [Dartmouth’s] explosive plays really hurt us.” 

As a result of Saturday’s win, Dartmouth also seized control of sole possession of third place, because Harvard and Princeton tied for first, in the Ivy League’s final standings.

“It’s probably one of the most unselfish teams I’ve ever coached,” Teevens said. “This was a statement game. I believe we are a championship-caliber team.”

Earlier Saturday afternoon, Harvard demolished Yale 34-7, to move into a first-place tie with Princeton, who had defeated Harvard earlier in the year. Princeton and Harvard finish the 2013 season sharing the Ivy Championship title.

The Ivy League’s remaining Saturday games included a surprise 42-41 upset by Cornell over Penn and a 48-7 Brown rout of Columbia. Columbia finished the season without a single win and just 73 points scored.

Brad Ausmus Named Detroit Tigers Manager

On Nov. 3, the Detroit Tigers’ president and general manager Dave Dombrowski named Brad Ausmus ’91 the team’s manager. Ausmus agreed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2017, replacing Jim Leyland who had held the reins since 2006 and retired after his team lost in the ALCS to the Boston Red Sox this season.

“We were most impressed with Brad’s preparation and leadership, which are among his many quality attributes,” Dombrowski said in a press conference. “We are confident Brad is the right person to lead our team and continue the recent success of the Tigers organization.”

Ausmus played 18 years and 1,971 games with four different teams, including three non-consecutive seasons with Detroit. He won three golden gloves and was selected an All-Star in 1999. He is also the all-time Houston Astros leader among catchers in games played, hits and runs scored.

“I couldn’t be more excited to manage the Detroit Tigers,” Ausmus said in a statement. “It’s not very often that you get the opportunity to manage a team that went to the American League Championship the previous year. There is a lot of work to be done by spring training and no details will be glossed over. Our goal is to hopefully return to the ALCS and then take the next step.”

Ausmus takes over a team loaded with talent and playoff experience. Leyland led the Tigers to two World Series appearances and four consecutive AL Central Division titles. Consequently, the team has high expectations as they return with a core of Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

“We’re not going to reinvent the wheel here,” Ausmus said. “This is a pretty darn good team. I think I would be foolish to come here and try to make sweeping changes.”

While at Dartmouth, Ausmus majored in government and was a member of Chi Gamma Epsilon fraternity and Sphinx senior society. Despite being drafted by the New York Yankees in the 48th round of the 1987 MLB draft, he entered the College because he wanted to pursue an undergraduate degree. He never suited up for the Big Green, however, because his minor league contract prohibited him from doing so, but still served as a bullpen catcher and volunteer coach while he was a student. The catcher graduated from the College in five and a half years.

Even though Ausmus never donned a Dartmouth jersey, the hire could have implications for Big Green baseball.

“I think Dartmouth baseball has established itself as a national recognized program and these are great examples of that,” Jeff Keller ’14 said. “Ausmus didn’t play here, but he was involved in our program and still knows Coach Whalen very well. I think this is just an example of how strong and consistent our program is.”

Ausmus’s hire could impact future recruiting classes.

“Having a Dartmouth alum hired as the manager of the Detroit Tigers is great for Dartmouth’s baseball program,” Dustin Selzer ’14 said. “One of the major effects of the Brad Ausmus hiring is that it will bring more attention to the program, which is always a good thing. Also, I’m sure Coach Whalen will love having that in his bag of tricks when he’s on the road recruiting.”

After graduation, he was re-drafted by the Colorado Rockies as part of the 1992 expansion draft. He was later traded to the San Diego Padres, with whom he made his MLB debut. After bouncing between the Tigers and Astros, Ausmus settled in with Houston from 2001-2008, where heappeared in the 2005 World Series, in which the Astros were swept by the Chicago White Sox. His appearance made him the fist Ivy League graduate to play in the World Series since 1916. He retired in 2010 at the age of 41 as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Over his career, Ausmus posted a .251 average with 80 home runs and 607 RBI.

Ausmus carries a reputation for being a tough, hard-nosed player since he caught 18 years in the big leagues. He claims that the mental aspect came easiest to him while in the league. He never earned a grade below a “B” while enrolled at the College.

“I always enjoyed the cerebral part,” Ausmus said. “It was much more difficult to hit. That was part of the game I didn’t really enjoy.”

Ausmus has no prior managing experience in any baseball league, but managed Israel’s team for the 2013 World Baseball Classic. The Tigers, however, hope that his knowledge from 18 years behind the plate will be just as effective, if not more.

“I was just playing the game three years ago,” Ausmus said. “I have a pretty good understanding of how the locker room dynamic is.”

Ausmus also indicated at his introductory press conference that he may use a mixture of sabermetrics and ‘old-school’ scouting to make decisions.

“I can tell you that players do not like to be inundated with numbers,” he said. “But I think if you can take some of that statistical information and grind it down into a usable piece of information that you can hand off to a player, I think that can be important.”

Prior to being named manager, Ausmus worked in the San Diego Padres’ front office as a special assistant to the general manager.

“I’m well aware that you don’t generally get dropped into a situation like I will be this coming season,” Ausmus said. “I understand I’m very fortunate. That being said, I’m not taking anything for granted. No details will be glossed over. I’m not assuming anything going into the job.”

Spring Training starts Feb. 25, with an exhibition game against the Atlanta Braves on the 27th.

The Tigers open their 2014 regular season on March 31 with a six-game home stand against the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles.

This article was originally written by me and published on The Dartmouth website.

Oakland Raiders Quarterback Terrelle Pryor Predicts Playoff Run

The Oakland Raiders have a believer at quarterback. Despite Sunday afternoon's 24-7 loss to Kansas City, quarterback Terrelle Pryor still believes Oakland will make the playoffs.

Behind an injury plagued offensive line, Pryor was sacked 10 times and threw three interceptions as Oakland dropped to 2-4, looking the part of a potential playoff contender in another couple years.

Pro Football Focus reported that Pryor was pressured on 53 percent of his dropbacks, the highest percentage all season to this point.

After the game, Pryor made it clear that Oakland hasn't given up on chasing Kansas City and Denver for divisional superiority.

Oakland has a long ways to go as both the Chiefs and the Broncos stand as the NFL's two remaining undefeated teams at 6-0. Denver appears invincible, except when playing Jacksonville, while Kansas City is playing sound, fundamental football. Even on off days, both teams are still able to win despite making several mental mistakes, something Oakland has yet to show.

"We have to come together and start creating," Pryor said. "We'll be back; 2-4; we'll get to the playoffs."

All of Oakland hopes for a surprise playoff berth depends on the arm and legs of Pryor. In the one game Pryor didn't start, Oakland lost 24-14 to a very vulnerable Washington when former backup and current free agent Matt Flynn couldn't move the ball.

Now, in addition to leading the offense, Pryor is stepping up and becoming the mental leader Oakland desperately needs. His comments show that he's trying to become the one who inspires his teammates and never gives up, a sign of his growing maturity.

"This loss is on me," Pryor said. "I'll take it. I'll make sure we get better. As the leader of the offense, I have to make sure it happens. It will."

Just as the former Ohio State star believes in his current team, the Raiders are starting to believe in him.

“This is not a one-man thing," left tackle Khalif Barnes said. "Everybody played a part in this. We all have things he could’vedone better. We have to learn how to play together. He’s done well for us. He needs to keep his head up and get back to work.”

Oakland has plenty of holes on both sides of the ball. The playoffs may be out of reach this year since Kansas City and Denver will likely take one playoff slot and a team from the AFC North or AFC East will take the final opening.

Hopefully, Pryor is able to bounce back from his poor performance and use the upcoming bye to prepare for Pittsburgh in two weeks. On the bright side, Oakland is finally watchable with a young passer to start building around, especially one whose last name isn't Russell.

This article was originally published by me on the Bleacher Report.

Louisville's Title Hopes Gone; So are Bridgewater's Heisman Hopes

The Louisville Cardinals remain undefeated after Thursday night's 24-10 win over Rutgers University, but Thursday's pyrrhic victory cost Louisville a BCS National Championship game appearance. In front of a national TV audience, Louisville had the chance to showcase their worthiness against a decent opponent but flopped. Now, Louisville's goal is even farther away than it was at the beginning of the season and will only get more distant.

With six games left in the regular season, the schedule gets much tougher as three of Louisville's opponents have at least four wins apiece. Cincinnati, Central Florida and Houston stand in the way, and strong performances from any one of them will prevent Louisville from traveling to Pasadena. BCS voters will not choose the Cardinals over a one-loss Pac-12 or SEC team. Even a 12-0 Ohio State squad would be selected over Louisville based on appearance and strength of schedule.

Cincinnati has a decent team and is probably a notch better than both Kentucky and Rutgers. However, Cincinnati is the easiest threat to handle, if only because of the adversity the Bearcats are going through. In head coach Tommy Tuberville's first season, Cincinnati lost starting quarterback Munchie Legaux to a knee injury, the Bearcats were upset by previously winless South Florida and redshirt freshman Brian Flick died tragically in a car accident.

Houston's potential to upset Louisville is a mystery because the Cougars have yet to play a strong opponent. Next week's game against Brigham Young will give a more accurate picture of Houston. One thing remains constant though, Houston's high-powered offense will test Louisville's defense.

Right now, Louisville's biggest threat is Central Florida who has already routed Akron, a team that almost upset Michigan, and upset Penn State. Two weeks ago, Central Florida almost shocked South Carolina but fell short, losing by just three points for its only loss of the season. With a defense that is giving up 16.6 points per game, Central Florida will harass Bridgewater all night and force him to make more mistakes that Rutgers did.

Louisville's title hopes rested on the arm of Heisman hopeful quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater needed to play perfectly every game of the season, but against Rutgers, he threw for 310 yards and two touchdowns. Instead, Louisville only won on a big performance from its defense while Bridgewater led an offense that turned the ball over three times. Louisville's defense suffocated Rutgers quarterback Gary Nova, registering eight sacks and four interceptions.

Per Gary B. Graves of ABC Sports, "It was a decent performance,"Bridgewater said. "I left a couple of throws on the field. I battled adversity, but it was a decent performance. It was a great team effort, the guys laid it all on the line."

Bridgewater threw an interception in the end zone and missed a wide-open Damian Copeland that could have put Louisville inside the five-yard line.

Bridgewater acknowledged that Louisville could have, and should have, played much better. Per Fox Sports' Greg Couch, "I believe we got our message through," Bridgewater said. "(But) we left about 17 points on the field. We should've easily put up 40 points tonight."

Head coach Charlie Strong knows that Thursday night's performance likely cost Louisville the Championship appearance, and he tried to spin the victory as one voters should approve of during his post-game interview.

Per Couch's report, “We came away with a victory and it was a good game. Rutgers played well also. If you’re sitting there with someone watching the game, you’re probably saying, 'This is a really good football game.'"

For a team to have a chance at the National Championship, it needs a bit-time, marquee victory. Louisville's only major victory this season was against SEC cellar-dweller Kentucky, a 27-13 win that should have been larger for a prospective championship team.

Louisville was a dark-horse candidate to play in the BCS Championship during the preseason thanks to last season's bowl win over Florida and Bridgewater's Heisman hype. But just like Bridgewater's shot at the Heisman, Louisville's shot at the Championship is gone with the wind, regardless of whether they win the American Athletic Conference or not.

This article was originally published by me on the Bleacher Report.

Cincinnati Football: Breaking down the Bearcats' Potential 2013 Bowl Outlook

With three more wins, the Cincinnati Bearcats will qualify for their seventh consecutive bowl game. However, last Saturday's 26-20 upset to previously winless South Florida makes some wonder just how far Cincinnati will advance this season.

Cincinnati was picked to finish second in the preseason American Athletic Conference media poll. At 3-2 with one conference loss, Cincinnati must treat every game as a must-win, starting tonight against Temple. If the Bearcats lose one more game before the season finale against Louisville, Cincinnati will find itself in the Belk Bowl.

By running the table, the Bearcats will set up a winner-take-all with Louisville for the title and, more importantly, a BCS bowl game. Rutgers and the Bearcats themselves are the biggest obstacles standing in the way of a Cincinnati-Louisville title game.

Louisville might be vulnerable enough for Cincinnati to mount the upset bid. Thursday night, Louisville barely remained undefeated as Rutgers forced three turnovers and contained Teddy Bridgewater for most of the night, likely torpedoing his Heisman hopes. Rutgers could have won if not for the Scarlet Knights committing four turnovers themselves.

A BCS appearance would provide a much happier ending to an extremely turbulent season where very little has gone right. In head coach Tommy Tuberville's inaugural season, Cincinnati lost starting quarterback Munchie Legaux to injury, was blown out by Illinois and barely squeaked by rival Miami (OH) with a 14-0 win.

Following the Miami (OH) game, freshman offensive lineman Ben Flick died in a tragic auto accident. Playing with heavy hearts, Cincinnati traveled to South Florida only to lose a heartbreaker. But hope exists for the Bearcats after they rallied against South Florida and scored 14 points in the fourth quarter.

Excluding the blowout at Illinois, the defense has been Cincinnati's strong point, allowing 17.4 points and an impressive 251 yards per game. Most of Cincinnati's issues reside with the offense.

According to Tuberville, the offensive issues include getting beaten up front, younger receivers not running routes correctly and an inconsistent running game.

"Normally the team with the most adversity is the team that comes out on top," Cincinnati running back Ralph David Abernathy IV said in an interview with Tom Groeschen of the Cincinnati Enquirer. "To me, the only way to go for us is up."

Cincinnati must rely on its defense and a run game currently averaging 200 yards per game until quarterback Brendon Kay demonstrates the ability to carry the offense. Kay has an easy three-game series against Temple, Connecticut and Memphis to become more confident. Cincinnati should win all three games while simultaneously qualifying for a bowl game.

After Memphis, Cincinnati's schedule toughens with Southern Methodist, Rutgers and Houston before the showdown with Louisville. Cincinnati's final four games will determine which bowl the Bearcats will play in.

CBS Sports' Jerry Palm predicts Cincinnati will play in the Pinstripe Bowl on December 28th against Notre Dame. USA Today agrees, though predicts Cincinnati will take on West Virginia.

Bill Bender of Sporting News projects Cincinnati versus Missouri in January 4th's Compass Bowl. ESPN's Mark Schlabach and Brad Edwards also place Cincinnati in the Compass Bowl but differ on the opponent—Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, respectively. Backing Edwards up is Jason Kirk of SBNation who also pits the Bearcats against the Commodores.

Scout.com leaves Cincinnati completely out of the postseason.

PREDICTION: Cincinnati loses to Rutgers and Louisville. Plays in the Belk Bowl versus ACC #5.

This article was originally published by me on the Bleacher Report.

Pac-12 Conference Clash Preview: Washington State vs. Oregon State

Washington State and Oregon State enter Saturday night's Pac-12 clash with four wins each. This year's face-off looks to be much more explosive than last year's 19-6 Oregon State victory over Washington State.

Benefactors of a soft first-half schedule, Saturday offers one team the opportunity to establish itself as a rising power. The loser will still have work to accomplish in an increasingly powerful Pac-12 conference that can challenge the SEC for dominance.

Saturday's matchup features two of the top eight passing games in the FBS, according to ESPN. Neither Oregon State nor Washington State runs the ball very often or effectively, ranking 121st and 122nd in the nation respectively.

Last week's aerial battle between Washington State and California totaled over 1,000 yards, and Saturday's tilt could produce similar results.

For several years in a row, Oregon State has fielded a powerful offense and fields one again this season.

After several forgettable seasons, Washington State is in the second year of head coach Mike Leach's rebuilding process. In just his second year, Leach's implementation of the Air Raid is nearing completion. A win against Oregon State would place WSU in prime position to play its first bowl game since 2003.

WSU should put on a fireworks display against an Oregon State defense giving up 31.6 points and 400 yards per game. Even worse, the Beaver defense surrendered 49 points to FCS-school Eastern Washington.

Under the guidance of Leach, Washington State owns the eighth-ranked passing attack, averaging 359.7 yards each week. In order to win, quarterback Connor Halliday needs as big a game as last week. He cannot afford to make mistakes like he did during his rough performance last year in Corvallis.

"I think it had more to do with Connor," Leach said during Washington State's weekly Monday press conference. "Going into Oregon St., he never really started or played very much. So the fact that he's started and played whatever it is, I think six full games, it's definitely helped him and he's way ahead of where he was last year."

Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion leads the second-ranked aerial assault, throwing for 2,000 yards, 21 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Despite being torched by Stanford for 55 points just two weeks ago, the Cougar defense has only allowed 20.8 points per game and hopes to challenge Mannion's early season success. But if WSU's defense fails, Saturday night will rapidly devolve into a shoot-out.

PREDICTION: Washington State 42, Oregon State 35

This article was originally published by me on the Bleacher Report.

Washington State Cougars Potential Bowl Outlook

In his second year, Mike Leach's overhaul of the Washington State football program is showing impressive signs of development in all areas from defense to the passing game and, surprisingly, the run game. As a result, Washington State should qualify for its first bowl game since 2003.

Leach inherited the team from Paul Wulff, who went 9-40 overall and 4-32 in conference play, good for the worst win-loss record of any coach in Cougars history. After experiencing some initial bumps during his first season where his team went 3-9, Leach has seemingly begun righting the ship and put the Cougars in position for their first six-win season in seven years.

The Cougars schedule should help Leach earn two more wins and qualify for a bowl berth. Over the course of the next two months, Washington State will play Oregon State, No. 2 Oregon, Arizona State, Arizona and Utah before taking on No. 16 Washington in the Apple Cup.

Washington State will likely lose against Oregon and Washington barring a major upset, but the Cougars have the potential to defeat the remaining four teams, or at least go 2-2.

Excluding Stanford's 55-point outburst, Washington State's defense has been playing much stronger than last year, allowing just 14 points per game. Including the Stanford game bumps the average up to 20.8 points per game, which is still good for 35th in the FBS.

The defense's best game was against Southern California, ranked 25th at the time. Thanks to a pick-six and a blocked field goal, the Cougars won 10-7 and held the Trojans to their lowest point total in the past 10 years after averaging 45.4 points per game against the Cougars in their last seven meetings.

Even the run game is performing twice as well. Although ranked 122nd in the nation with 58.7 yards per game, which is characteristic of Leach's Air Raid, the run game has chalked up 352 yards with six touchdowns compared to the 349 yards and six touchdowns earned throughout the entirety of last season.

Although no Mike Leach-coached team will ever win a game by running the ball, the run game is strong enough to keep opposing defenses honest and refrain from blitzing multiple defenders or dropping seven or eight into coverage.

The most important factor behind Washington State's development is the improved quarterback play of Connor Halliday who spearheads the eighth-ranked passing attack in 2013, according to ESPN.

Halliday split time last season with current Buffalo Bills backup Jeff Tuel. Combined, Halliday and Tuel completed 58.2 percent of their passes for 3,965 yards, 23 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.

In six games, Halliday has surpassed his performance from last year.

Season      CMP  ATT   YDS    CMP%    TD    INT    SACK    QBR    Adj. QBR
2013          189    290    1993    65.2        13    10         9           51.7         65.8
2012          152    291    1878    52.2        15    13        22          34.5         35.3

Leach's Air Raid relies on excellent quarterback play. In his first season as the full-time starter, Halliday is proving that he is capable of coordinating Leach's aerial attack.

In his most recent game at California, Halliday completed 41 of 67 passing for 521 yards, three touchdowns and one interception as Washington State routed California 44-22. Halliday bounced back nicely after a lackluster performance two weeks ago against Stanford, setting a school record and climbing to second place in completions and yards. Only former quarterback Alex Brink threw for more yardage in a single game.

"We came out with our hair on fire, but we've got to be able to keep rolling and putting up points for our defense," Halliday said during a post-game interview (via Lew Wright of All Coug'd Up) after leading the Cougars to victory against California. "We had some looks to throw the ball out there today and we had the ball for a long time. That's going to happen in this offense."

If Halliday can cut down on the rate he throws interceptions, he might become as prolific as previous quarterbacks in Leach's system, like Graham Harrell.

ESPN writer Ted Miller agrees that Washington State will earn entry into a bowl game, projecting that the Cougars will play in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl on December 21 against Mountain West (No. 4). Another potential landing spot is the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl against either BYU or ACC (No. 9).

Anything less than a bowl game would be a disappointment. Next year, though, Leach's program should begin its ascent to levels similarly experienced by Leach's former team, Texas Tech.

This article was originally published by me on the Bleacher Report.

Arms Race: The Skyrocketing Costs of a Franchise Quarterback

Joe Flacco moments after winning the Super Bowl

On March 1st, 2013, the biggest news circulating the football world was the Baltimore Ravens resigning quarterback Joe Flacco to a 6-year, $120.6 million. His new contract designates him the highest paid player in the NFL, that is until the next big quarterback contract. His average yearly salary is larger than that of Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethilisberger. These quarterbacks are widely considered to be more elite than Flacco, but it was Flacco’s recent Super Bowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers that elevated his income to such heights.

Perception is reality in football. Prior to winning the Super Bowl, some believed that Flacco could not lead the Ravens to a title, placing him at risk of being unsigned. Then he led the Ravens to four straight victories and a championship over the likes of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Brady, and Colin Kaerpernick, throwing for eleven touchdowns and zero interceptions. His championship postseason catapulted his value into similar values compared to the best quarterbacks in history. But the size of his contract isn’t surprising, as record-breaking deals are becoming an annual occurrence. During the 2012 offseason, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees signed a 5-year, $100 million deal, becoming the League’s highest paid player for a year. Brees’ role as the field general for the Saints’ offense, and his Super Bowl XIV victory for post-Katrina New Orleans, determined his contract’s value. Quarterback contracts possess interesting system dynamics because as each new contract’s value increases, it affects the contractual value of another team’s quarterback. 

A player is evaluated throughout the course of an entire season and his value is adjusted according to his level of play. His value rises if he plays better, and vice versa. A player is released if his physical value falls below his contractual value. In Flacco’s case, the Ravens were compelled to offer him a massive contract because of his “magical” postseason, or else lose a championship caliber quarterback and suffer a fallout with their fan base.

The increase in the value of quarterback contracts presents a dilemma because each NFL team’s salary cap spending limit. At the end of the year, the salary cap is then adjusted to a new, usually higher, amount. However, the NFL has entered the “Flat Cap Era,” which means that the annual salary cap adjustment is extremely small. This year’s salary cap is expected to be $123 million, the same amount it was in 2009. When a quarterback possesses a contract that could consume one-sixth of a team’s salary cap, the overall play-making talent of the quarterback’s team suffers since only $100 million can be spent on the other 52 players on an NFL roster. Unless the team is extremely efficient with regards to how it evaluates and drafts new and cheaper talent, teams like the 2012 New Orleans Saints missed the playoffs because of their inability to supply Brees with enough supporting talent to win the nine games to earn a playoff berth.

There are several reasons why NFL teams are willing, even required, to spend so much money on quarterbacks; finding a good quarterback is hard, finding an elite quarterback is rare. With most NFL offenses are utilizing “pass-first” philosophies, finding a solid quarterback is a requirement. Teams unable to find a quarterback become the doormats of the NFL, such as the Arizona Cardinals or the Kansas City Chiefs.

For a quarterback, the size of his contract in comparison to other quarterbacks is a success metric. A player who wants to be seen as the best wants a contract larger than their other quarterbacks. In another couple years, if a quarterback such as the Kaepernick or Cam Newton wins a Super Bowl in the final year of their contract, it would not be a surprise if they received the next largest contract in NFL history, possibly 6 years for $130 million, in NFL history. The only possible way to address this problem in the time of the quarterback is to cap player contracts the same way that rookie contracts are capped. This solution is highly unlikely because the League would face resistance from the Players’ Union, possibly in the form of a players strike, and a strike is an experience that the League, the owners, the players, and the fans would not want to experience again. Thus, teams are going to continue spending more to acquire or retain championship quarterbacks, even at the expense of the larger team.