Draft Predictions: Top Nine Quarterbacks of the NFL 2014 Draft

We've all heard it before. In this day and age, you can't reach a Super Bowl, let alone win one, without a franchise quarterback. The few teams that have reached the Super Bowl with subpar quarterback play did so with an outstanding defense and a solid ground game (i.e. 2000 Ravens).

Over the last few years, numerous coaches lost their jobs due to issues surrounding the quarterback position leading to losing seasons, including four this year (Cleveland, Houston, Minnesota and Tennessee). For those coaches newly hired, this may be their first and only chance to pick the correct player. Few coaches who make a bad pick live to draft again like Rex Ryan.

Other teams like Oakland and Tampa Bay are considering whether they want to draft a signal caller because the current one isn't guaranteed to be a success.

This is a ranking of the top quarterbacks in the draft and where I think they'll land. Unfortunately, not all of them will be drafted nor signed as a rookie free agent.

1. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M - Cleveland Browns (1st Rd)
   
   Manziel is the top quarterback of the draft, which long-time analyst and personnel man Gil Brandt agrees with, but Manziel figures to drop to the Browns for various reasons.
   
   Manziel is probably the quarterback in this year's draft that epitomizes high-risk, high-reward. His reputation varies depending on who you talk to and some coaches are sure he has the maturity or the work ethic to develop into an NFL quarterback. In some ways, Manziel is most similar to Vince Young in 2005 but with more potential as a passer.
   
   Cleveland, after uninspiring, unexciting picks like Colt McCoy and Brandon Weeden, could use a shot of excitement and swagger that Manziel would provide. Supported by a strong defense and Josh Gordon, Greg Little and Jordan Cameron in the aerial attack, Manziel could start right away and succeed. Cleveland also has a second first-round pick which it could use to add depth to the offensive line or deal for a lower pick and take a running back to provide run support.
   
   Cleveland will likely keep Brian Hoyer, who led the Browns to wins over Cincinnati and Minnesota. Hoyer should enter next season as the presumptive starter but if Manziel jumps him on the depth chart, no one should be surprised.


2. Blake Bortles, UCF - Houston Texans (1st Rd)
   
   Few would have thought that by the end of 2013, two of the top three signal-callers would be coming out of the AAC, which has taken a nose dive in terms of reputation regarding quality of competition. Even less would say that UCF's Bortles would be the top QB from the AAC. Some are even wondering if he might be the next Andrew Luck with similar size and deceptively quick speed.
   
   But his performance this year catapulted him to the top of draft boards just like Teddy Bridgewater last year. Bortles is considered to have the so-called "it" factor that can't be coached, as evidenced by the 52-42 win over Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl and the 38-35 win over Louisville that UCF trailed 28-7 in the fourth quarter.
   
   According to Russ Lande, new Texans head coach Bill O'Brien is initially leaning towards either Manziel or Bortles. Although owner Bob McNair prefers Manziel, O'Brien isn't yet sold on Manziel's work ethic, which could cause Houston to pick Bortles. Bortles would probably be just fine with that. Houston has the weapons and the defense to succeed and compete with the Colts for AFC South supremacy so long as there's quality quarterback play. Bortles would represent a significant upgrade over the slumping Matt Schaub and inexperienced Case Keenum.


3. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville - Oakland Raiders (1st Rd)
   
   Bridgewater's greatest strengths are his accuracy, poise and reputation as a low-risk signal-caller than can start immediately. He doesn't have the athletic potential most of the other top prospects have, but he's able to throw on the run and extend plays. Some have compared the hype to Sam Bradford while others think of him as more of a taller version of Russell Wilson. Considering Oakland's recent string of underwhelming quarterbacks, having a solid QB under center would be a major upgrade.
   
   I think Oakland would prefer either Manziel or Bortles but both of them will be gone by the time the Raiders pick and QB is a spot that desperately needs an upgrade. The other three quarterbacks under center in the AFC West (Peyton Manning, Alex Smith and Phillip Rivers) can elevate a team's play for varying lengths of time. Oakland's current duo of Matt McGloin and Terrelle Pryor is a steep drop-off in comparison. Bridgewater, if he can play like Bradford or Wilson, would help Oakland a lot in this department.


4. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois - Jacksonville Jaguars (2nd Rd)
   
   When A.J. McCarron pulled out of the Senior Bowl, the Jacksonville staff requested that Garoppolo be invited for the final roster spot. With Blaine Gabbert figuring to be released, that leaves Chad Henne as Garoppolo's competition for a roster spot.
   
   I figure Jacksonville uses its first-round pick for a premier defensive talent, potentially Jadeveon Clown if St. Louis doesn't select him, Gus Bradley should use his second-rounder for Garoppolo.
   
   The Eastern Illinois product had an outstanding performance during the East-West Shrine Game before turning in arguably the best QB performance for the Senior Bowl. He's got a decent arm, good mechanics with a quick release and an excellent football mind. One of his biggest criticisms is his lack of experience under center, but considering the increasingly aerial nature of today's game, this is becoming less and less an issue for spread quarterbacks.


5. Derek Carr, Fresno State - Minnesota (2nd Rd)
   
   I'm of the opinion that Carr is an overhyped quarterback after his performance against USC. Yes, he demonstrated the strongest arm on his team at the Senior Bowl but he looked lost and overwhelmed against an inconsistent USC defense. While he has the physical tools to make the jump to the NFL, he hasn't displayed the judgment or capability of running a pro-style offense.
   
   However, Minnesota needs a quarterback because Christian Ponder isn't cutting it and Matt Cassel will reportedly void his contract and test free agency. Minnesota will likely sign another veteran quarterback but whoever Minnesota ultimately drafts will likely be the starting quarterback entering next season.
   
   Unfortunately for Carr's development, the Fresno State product will be thrown into the fray just like his older brother against some of the best defensive lines like Detroit's and Buffalo's. His best chances for success will be for new offensive coordinator Norv Turner to run an offense similar to Carr's at Fresno State. 


6. Zach Mettenberger, LSU - Chicago (4th Rd)
   
   I wouldn't be surprised if Mettenberger was selected in the 3rd round but he shouldn't fall any lower than the 4th. He's currently recovering from a torn ACL he suffered in a comeback win over Arkansas in the season finale. Otherwise, Mettenberger would be a second-rounder.
   
   Mettenberger would be a great fit for Chicago because he's fits a similar mold compared to Jay Cutler with prototypical size and a strong arm. Current back-up Josh McCown is no solid lock for the Bears despite his stated intention to return.
   
   The dangers of drafting Mettenberger include the torn ACL and its rehab, and Mettenberger has a reputation for becoming painfully inconsistent, sometimes managing an LSU offense that completely disappears. He won't be an immediate starter and is better suited as a backup in the short-term, but he could win a few games if managed correctly by head coach Marc Trestman.


7. A.J. McCarron, Alabama - Tampa Bay (4th Rd)
   
   McCarron's problem stems from the general perception he's a game manager that succeeded only because of Alabama's superior defense and stellar running game. His final two games, both losses, seemingly legitimize the thought that McCarron can't elevate his team's level of play. While it's true Alabama is a superior team compared to much of its competition, it still doesn't change McCarron's career 77-to-15 TD-INT ratio.
   
   If Kansas City didn't have Alex Smith or Chase Daniels, McCarron would probably be an excellent choice for Andy Reid's system. Minnesota would be another candidate but I have them taking Carr and I don't think they'll repeat Washington's RGIII-Cousins draft combination.
   
   Hence, I have Tampa Bay choosing McCarron. The Buccaneers have a solid defense that will be coached by defensive mastermind Lovie Smith and an excellent running tandem with Doug Martin, Bobby Rainey and even Mike James. The passing game could use an upgrade behind Vincent Jackson but Smith could upgrade it in the earlier rounds and take McCarron to compete with incumbent Mike Glennon. Whoever won out would then start under center for one of the league's more conservative offenses.


8. Aaron Murray, Georgia - Houston Texans (6th Rd)
   
   Murray's in a similar boat to Mettenberger as he tore an ACL in the middle of the season during a win over Kentucky. Prior to the injury, Murray would have been considered a second or third round pick at best. Instead, this injury drops him significantly down draft boards.
   
   I don't understand why there's so many lukewarm feelings toward Murray regarding his pro potential. His only true downside has been Georgia annually underperforming, but players can't be expected to play flawlessly every down. The moment that seems to come to mind most was the end of the 2012 SEC Championship game when Georgia came yards shy from upsetting Alabama.
   
   But his injury combined with his underwhelming reputation leaves him to a team that might take him as a medium to long-term project, similar to how Denver drafted Brock Osweiler. As a result, Houston could draft Murray in a move similar to Washington two years ago. Taking Murray would be O'Brien's way of hedging his bets. By the time Houston learns whether Keenum or Bortles is the answer, if neither pan out, Murray could then step in.


9. Connor Shaw, South Carolina - Cincinnati Bengals (6th Rd)
   
   Cincinnati probably won't select a quarterback but if the Bengals did, Shaw would be an interesting selection. He's a very underrated quarterback and is the career leader in wins at South Carolina, going 26-5 and a perfect 17-0 at home.
   
   He's also tough, coming off the bench this year with a sprained knee to lead South Carolina in mounting a 17-point comeback and win 27-24 over then-No. 5 Missouri. Shaw then went on to complete 22 of 25 for 312 yards and three touchdowns in a Capital One Bowl win over Wisconsin last month for his final collegiate game.
   
   Shaw's known to take chances and run with the ball when he needs to, as demonstrated by his 1,500 yards at South Carolina. Although starter Andy Dalton has been blooming statistically, he has a habit of disappearing in playoff games. Adding Shaw as a developmental project would be a signal to Dalton that he needs to keep performing better or else risk being pulled in favor of a quarterback who can win a postseason game.

Honorable Mention:

1. Garrett Gilbert, SMU
   
   Gilbert is an underrated player that suffers from what occurred at the University of Texas. He showed potential when he was thrust into the lineup during the National Championship Game against Alabama, but he unceremoniously disappeared after replacing Colt McCoy the following season. After languishing on the Texas depth chart, he moved over to Southern Methodist where he experienced a resurgent season before being injured.
   
   Gilbert will likely never be anything more than a back-up quarterback, but his resilience and physical tools should make him irresistible to some teams that are looking to develop him. Unfortunately, considering his recent history, Gilbert will likely be an undrafted rookie free agent.

Notable quarterbacks left off the list: James Franklin, Missouri; Taylor Martinez, Nebraska; Brendon Kay, Cincinnati; Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois; Casey Pachall, TCU; Tom Savage, Pitt; Brett Smith, Wyoming; Jeff Mathews, Cornell; Stephen Morris, Miami; Logan Thomas, Virginia; Tajh Boyd, Clemson; Keith Price, Washington; David Fales, San Jose State

Trade Rumors: Is Terrelle Pryor done in Oakland?

On January 29th, Sports World Report released an article regarding trade rumors involving Oakland quarterback Terrelle Pryor. The article claims that Pryor has worn out his welcome and that the Oakland decision makers are opting to go with second-year QB Matt McGloin. Furthermore, potential destinations like Philadelphia, Minnesota and Houston are all mentioned.

It makes sense that Oakland wants to move on with McGloin and drop Pryor. Pryor had his moments during the season but he could never string together the kind of consistency GM Reggie McKenzie desires of a quarterback. He could never sustain drives and take some of the pressure of an overburdened defense.

McGloin is the kind of pure passer Oakland seemingly wants. McKenzie brought in Matt Flynn from Seattle for the starting gig before Flynn lost his job to Pryor in the offseason and, ultimately, his roster spot when he didn't step up in the game against Washington.

McGloin is of a similar mold to Flynn, but with more potential and a stronger arm. The former Penn State quarterback showed the willingness to air the ball out deep and stretch the field, something Flynn has never done too much of. Pryor was willing to throw deep as well, but his mechanics weren't great and he was more willing to scramble for the first.

In the end, McGloin outperformed Pryor and earned the starting job, although neither quarterback put up big numbers. McGloin was just more consistent, productive and avoided more drive-killing sacks (McGloin was sacked six times. Pryor? 31.)

Which means if McGloin has the job (although Oakland will definitely either draft a quarterback or sign another veteran to complete with McGloin), McKenzie has no reason to keep Pryor, especially since McGloin and Pryor require different types of offenses.

I don't see any teams willing to trade for Pryor considering how much of a developmental project he's still considered, which will force McKenzie's hand and prompt him to cut Pryor in order to save a little money for the salary cap.

But where would Pryor go?

Philadelphia is the leading option because Pryor is the younger, cheaper and, hopefully, more durable version of Michael Vick. If Philly signed Pryor, Vick is guaranteed to be cut loose because of his large contract. However, I don't see Pryor being able to catch on behind Nick Foles.

Houston was also listed, but with a receiver like Andre Johnson, the Texans and Bill O'Brien are going to want a passer with a more proven record than Pryor. Most likely, Houston will select a QB in the draft like Teddy Bridgewater or Johnny Manziel, depending on who O'Brien likes more.

Minnesota, in my opinion, seems like the best option. Pryor's a lethal running threat and could attract attention away from star running back Adrian Peterson. If Minnesota were to run a lot of play-action, the multi-dimensional threat of Pryor bootlegging and running would force a lot of single coverage and Pryor is just accurate enough that he can capitalize on a blown coverage.

Will Seattle win its first Championship in 97 years?

By now, everyone has read analysts endlessly debate whether the Seattle Seahawks will defeat the Denver Broncos. Everyone has read how Sunday's Super Bowl will define Peyton Manning's legacy and how if he loses, it could be the latest chapter in a heartbreaking series of playoff letdowns. Or how if Denver loses, it will be their record fifth Super Bowl defeat.

But Seattle has, arguably, a more elaborate history of heartbreaking championship losses. With a loss, Seattle will further establish itself as a snakebitten city with worse luck than any other major sports hub with the possible exception of Atlanta.

Seattle has won just two sports championships in the major professional leagues.  The first occurred 97 years ago when the Seattle Metropolitans walloped the Montreal Canadiens 9-1. The Mets defeated Montreal in a best-of-five series in four games. Fortunately for Seattle, the trophy continues to reside in the Emerald City even though the Mets folded in 1924.

The other championship trophy resides in Oklahoma because of the SuperSonics move to Oklahoma City where they became the Thunder. The Sonics won the 1979 NBA Finals against the Washington Bullets in five games out of a possible seven.

The Seattle Sounders, Seattle's MLS franchise, had success recently, winning three consecutive U.S. Open Cups and going to a fourth before losing on a penalty shootout. However, the Sounders have never played in the MLS Cup final.

The Storm, Seattle's WNBA franchise, does alleviate some of the collective heartbreak every other professional franchise has suffered. The Storm has won two WNBA Championships, the first in 2004 and the second in 2010. Unfortunately, women's leagues suffer from minimal interest and minimal money compared to the NFL, NBA, MLS, NHL and MLB. Hopefully things change in the future but until then, leagues like the WNBA won't receive the respect they deserve.

As for the rest of Seattle's professional franchises, here's a list of heartbreaking moments separated by team:

• Seahawks
• Lost against Los Angeles Raiders in 1983 AFC Championship.
• Brian Bosworth famously steamrolled by Bo Jackson.
• New York Jets' QB Vinny Testaverde's "Phantom Touchdown." Led to 32-31 loss in 1998. 
• Lost at Green Bay during 2003 playoffs. Matt Hasselback's famous comment, "We want the ball, and we're going to score," before throwing game-ending interception.
• Lost to Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XL. Major problems in officiating. 
• Mariners
• Lost in the ALCS to Cleveland.
• Won 116 games in 2001. Lost to the Yankees in the ALCS.
• Pilots
• Existed in Seattle in 1969 before moving to Milwaukee and becoming the Brewers in 1970.
• SuperSonics
• Lost 1978 NBA Finals to Washington Bullets.
• Won 64 games in 1995. Encountered 72-win, Michael Jordan-led Bulls in NBA Finals. Star Sean Kemp traded away the next season.
• Metropolitans
• No decision in 1918 Stanley Cup.
• Lost 1919 Stanley Cup. 
• Folded in 1924.

As a result, a loss on Sunday will be the final punctuation mark on the latest heartbreaking chapter in Seattle sports history. So, between Denver and Seattle, if either team needs to win a Super Bowl more, it's Seattle.

Ivy League Prospects in the 2014 NFL Draft

The 2014 NFL Draft is just over three months away and the Ivy League has a few potential football players that just might make it in the National Football League.

Four of the eight schools in the Ivy League (Columbia, UPenn, Dartmouth and Yale) have no seniors ranked on the CBSSports NFL Draft Prospects List which includes 1,001 players.

Harvard leads the remaining Ivy League schools with three names on the draft board. Princeton, Brown and Cornell have one name each but Princeton's Caraun Reid is the only player likely to be drafted. This article also assumes the six potential players are intent on a professional football career.

Cornell

• QB Jeff Mathews, 6-4, 225 lbs, Projection: 7th Rd-UFA
  
  Mathews entered the 2013 season with possible expectations of becoming the next Joe Flacco, a first round pick from a small FCS school. An up-and-down senior year and a disappointing 3-7 season for Cornell derailed those hopes. Although he still tossed 22 touchdowns and became Cornell's leader in most passing categories, underwhelming performances against defenses like Dartmouth's exposed flaws such as indecisiveness and holding the ball too long only to check down.
  
  Mathews did earn an invite to the East-West Shrine Game and raised his stock a little with a solid week of practice. He didn't receive much playing time though, completing 4-of-5 for 37 yards and a pick as Eastern Illinois' Jimmy Garoppolo played lights out and considerably raised his own draft prospects.
  
  Mathews does have some scrambling ability, finishing second on the team in rushing with 264 yards and four scores. However, Princeton's leading rusher had just 391 yards and the team finished with a miserable 888 combined yards on the ground.
  
  Mathews will likely be undrafted and signed to a team's practice squad as a developmental prospect. But if he is in fact drafted, it will be by a team with its own starter and a solid back-up. Green Bay would be a likely candidate as Mike McCarthy searches for a third-stringer after players like Graham Harrell, Vince Young, Seneca Wallace and Scott Tolzien didn't pan out as expected. 

Princeton

• DT Caraun Reid, 6-2, 301 lbs, Projection: 4th Rd
  
  Reid turned several GMs' heads with an impressive performance in the Senior Bowl when he sacked the quarterback on two consecutive plays. CBS has Reid ranked as the 13th best defensive tackle in the draft and considering how many teams need interior help on the line, Reid will likely hear his name called on Day Two. He won't warrant a first-round selection but with a spectacular pro workout, he could 

Harvard

• LS Tyler Ott, 6-3, 252 lbs, Projection: N/A
  
  Unfortunately, there's not much to say about long snappers. Every team in the NFL has one but there's about as much changeover regarding long snappers as there is with kickers and punters. Unless Ott proves to be exceptionally good and a team's long snapper has a down year, he won't have much of a future in the NFL. Becoming a Special Teams or position coach is a more likely possibility.

• TE Cameron Brate, 6-4, 245 lbs, Projection: N/A
  
  Brate has the ideal size for a tight end and considering the recent craze over having multi-purpose tight ends like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, Brate could have a future has a bargain pick-up. In eight games, Brate caught 25 passes for 403 yards and five touchdowns. Over the course of three years, he has 91 receptions for 1,381 yards and 18 touchdowns.
  
  Brate, if he chooses to stay with football, will likely need to spend a couple years with another football league and try to get on a team's radar and potentially be picked up on a team's practice squad. Right now, he's hovering around No. 33 on the list of tight end prospects.

• CB Brian Owusu, 5-10 lbs, 185, Projection: N/A
  
  Owusu's a cornerback but he plays like a safety that can make solo open-field tackles. He's forced fumbles and even earned a half-sack. He was named to the All-Ivy first team and the FCS-All New England team.
  
  He also demonstrated a full recovery from a knee injury that erased his sophomore season. He is an intriguing rookie free agent bargain for teams looking for safety help. The switch to safety would probably be required unless he demonstrates the speed to match up against premier receivers. 

Brown

• RB John Spooney, 5-11, 185 lbs, Projection: N/A
  
  Spooney's greatest strength is his speed. He's considered on of the fastest, if not the fastest, Ivy League athletes after becoming a three-time Heptagonal Champion in the 100-meter dash and two-time champion in the 200-meter dash. And after an amazing senior season where he ripped off numerous touchdowns over 70 yards, it's surprising he hasn't generated much interest.
  
  His greatest weakness? He would be considered too slim for most coaches. Even speed backs like Darren Sproles and Giovani Bernard who are very short (5-6 and 5-8, respectively) have a more concentrated mass. Instead, Spooney would be better served as a slot receiver except he doesn't have a proven history as a pass catcher. Teams would essentially be taking a gamble by drafting him with their valuable, limited draft picks.
  
  Look for him to potentially be signed as a practice squad member or he could shift over to the Arena League where his speed could light up the stadium.

Oakland Raiders Quarterback Terrelle Pryor Predicts Playoff Run

The Oakland Raiders have a believer at quarterback. Despite Sunday afternoon's 24-7 loss to Kansas City, quarterback Terrelle Pryor still believes Oakland will make the playoffs.

Behind an injury plagued offensive line, Pryor was sacked 10 times and threw three interceptions as Oakland dropped to 2-4, looking the part of a potential playoff contender in another couple years.

Pro Football Focus reported that Pryor was pressured on 53 percent of his dropbacks, the highest percentage all season to this point.

After the game, Pryor made it clear that Oakland hasn't given up on chasing Kansas City and Denver for divisional superiority.

Oakland has a long ways to go as both the Chiefs and the Broncos stand as the NFL's two remaining undefeated teams at 6-0. Denver appears invincible, except when playing Jacksonville, while Kansas City is playing sound, fundamental football. Even on off days, both teams are still able to win despite making several mental mistakes, something Oakland has yet to show.

"We have to come together and start creating," Pryor said. "We'll be back; 2-4; we'll get to the playoffs."

All of Oakland hopes for a surprise playoff berth depends on the arm and legs of Pryor. In the one game Pryor didn't start, Oakland lost 24-14 to a very vulnerable Washington when former backup and current free agent Matt Flynn couldn't move the ball.

Now, in addition to leading the offense, Pryor is stepping up and becoming the mental leader Oakland desperately needs. His comments show that he's trying to become the one who inspires his teammates and never gives up, a sign of his growing maturity.

"This loss is on me," Pryor said. "I'll take it. I'll make sure we get better. As the leader of the offense, I have to make sure it happens. It will."

Just as the former Ohio State star believes in his current team, the Raiders are starting to believe in him.

“This is not a one-man thing," left tackle Khalif Barnes said. "Everybody played a part in this. We all have things he could’vedone better. We have to learn how to play together. He’s done well for us. He needs to keep his head up and get back to work.”

Oakland has plenty of holes on both sides of the ball. The playoffs may be out of reach this year since Kansas City and Denver will likely take one playoff slot and a team from the AFC North or AFC East will take the final opening.

Hopefully, Pryor is able to bounce back from his poor performance and use the upcoming bye to prepare for Pittsburgh in two weeks. On the bright side, Oakland is finally watchable with a young passer to start building around, especially one whose last name isn't Russell.

This article was originally published by me on the Bleacher Report.

Arms Race: The Skyrocketing Costs of a Franchise Quarterback

Joe Flacco moments after winning the Super Bowl

On March 1st, 2013, the biggest news circulating the football world was the Baltimore Ravens resigning quarterback Joe Flacco to a 6-year, $120.6 million. His new contract designates him the highest paid player in the NFL, that is until the next big quarterback contract. His average yearly salary is larger than that of Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethilisberger. These quarterbacks are widely considered to be more elite than Flacco, but it was Flacco’s recent Super Bowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers that elevated his income to such heights.

Perception is reality in football. Prior to winning the Super Bowl, some believed that Flacco could not lead the Ravens to a title, placing him at risk of being unsigned. Then he led the Ravens to four straight victories and a championship over the likes of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Brady, and Colin Kaerpernick, throwing for eleven touchdowns and zero interceptions. His championship postseason catapulted his value into similar values compared to the best quarterbacks in history. But the size of his contract isn’t surprising, as record-breaking deals are becoming an annual occurrence. During the 2012 offseason, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees signed a 5-year, $100 million deal, becoming the League’s highest paid player for a year. Brees’ role as the field general for the Saints’ offense, and his Super Bowl XIV victory for post-Katrina New Orleans, determined his contract’s value. Quarterback contracts possess interesting system dynamics because as each new contract’s value increases, it affects the contractual value of another team’s quarterback. 

A player is evaluated throughout the course of an entire season and his value is adjusted according to his level of play. His value rises if he plays better, and vice versa. A player is released if his physical value falls below his contractual value. In Flacco’s case, the Ravens were compelled to offer him a massive contract because of his “magical” postseason, or else lose a championship caliber quarterback and suffer a fallout with their fan base.

The increase in the value of quarterback contracts presents a dilemma because each NFL team’s salary cap spending limit. At the end of the year, the salary cap is then adjusted to a new, usually higher, amount. However, the NFL has entered the “Flat Cap Era,” which means that the annual salary cap adjustment is extremely small. This year’s salary cap is expected to be $123 million, the same amount it was in 2009. When a quarterback possesses a contract that could consume one-sixth of a team’s salary cap, the overall play-making talent of the quarterback’s team suffers since only $100 million can be spent on the other 52 players on an NFL roster. Unless the team is extremely efficient with regards to how it evaluates and drafts new and cheaper talent, teams like the 2012 New Orleans Saints missed the playoffs because of their inability to supply Brees with enough supporting talent to win the nine games to earn a playoff berth.

There are several reasons why NFL teams are willing, even required, to spend so much money on quarterbacks; finding a good quarterback is hard, finding an elite quarterback is rare. With most NFL offenses are utilizing “pass-first” philosophies, finding a solid quarterback is a requirement. Teams unable to find a quarterback become the doormats of the NFL, such as the Arizona Cardinals or the Kansas City Chiefs.

For a quarterback, the size of his contract in comparison to other quarterbacks is a success metric. A player who wants to be seen as the best wants a contract larger than their other quarterbacks. In another couple years, if a quarterback such as the Kaepernick or Cam Newton wins a Super Bowl in the final year of their contract, it would not be a surprise if they received the next largest contract in NFL history, possibly 6 years for $130 million, in NFL history. The only possible way to address this problem in the time of the quarterback is to cap player contracts the same way that rookie contracts are capped. This solution is highly unlikely because the League would face resistance from the Players’ Union, possibly in the form of a players strike, and a strike is an experience that the League, the owners, the players, and the fans would not want to experience again. Thus, teams are going to continue spending more to acquire or retain championship quarterbacks, even at the expense of the larger team.