Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Arms Race: The Skyrocketing Costs of a Franchise Quarterback

Joe Flacco moments after winning the Super Bowl
On March 1st, 2013, the biggest news circulating the football world was the Baltimore Ravens resigning quarterback Joe Flacco to a 6-year, $120.6 million. His new contract designates him the highest paid player in the NFL, that is until the next big quarterback contract. His average yearly salary is larger than that of Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Ben Roethilisberger. These quarterbacks are widely considered to be more elite than Flacco, but it was Flacco’s recent Super Bowl victory over the San Francisco 49ers that elevated his income to such heights.

Perception is reality in football. Prior to winning the Super Bowl, some believed that Flacco could not lead the Ravens to a title, placing him at risk of being unsigned. Then he led the Ravens to four straight victories and a championship over the likes of Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning, Brady, and Colin Kaerpernick, throwing for eleven touchdowns and zero interceptions. His championship postseason catapulted his value into similar values compared to the best quarterbacks in history. But the size of his contract isn’t surprising, as record-breaking deals are becoming an annual occurrence. During the 2012 offseason, New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees signed a 5-year, $100 million deal, becoming the League’s highest paid player for a year. Brees’ role as the field general for the Saints’ offense, and his Super Bowl XIV victory for post-Katrina New Orleans, determined his contract’s value. Quarterback contracts possess interesting system dynamics because as each new contract’s value increases, it affects the contractual value of another team’s quarterback. 

A player is evaluated throughout the course of an entire season and his value is adjusted according to his level of play. His value rises if he plays better, and vice versa. A player is released if his physical value falls below his contractual value. In Flacco’s case, the Ravens were compelled to offer him a massive contract because of his “magical” postseason, or else lose a championship caliber quarterback and suffer a fallout with their fan base.

The increase in the value of quarterback contracts presents a dilemma because each NFL team’s salary cap spending limit. At the end of the year, the salary cap is then adjusted to a new, usually higher, amount. However, the NFL has entered the “Flat Cap Era,” which means that the annual salary cap adjustment is extremely small. This year’s salary cap is expected to be $123 million, the same amount it was in 2009. When a quarterback possesses a contract that could consume one-sixth of a team’s salary cap, the overall play-making talent of the quarterback’s team suffers since only $100 million can be spent on the other 52 players on an NFL roster. Unless the team is extremely efficient with regards to how it evaluates and drafts new and cheaper talent, teams like the 2012 New Orleans Saints missed the playoffs because of their inability to supply Brees with enough supporting talent to win the nine games to earn a playoff berth.

There are several reasons why NFL teams are willing, even required, to spend so much money on quarterbacks; finding a good quarterback is hard, finding an elite quarterback is rare. With most NFL offenses are utilizing “pass-first” philosophies, finding a solid quarterback is a requirement. Teams unable to find a quarterback become the doormats of the NFL, such as the Arizona Cardinals or the Kansas City Chiefs.

For a quarterback, the size of his contract in comparison to other quarterbacks is a success metric. A player who wants to be seen as the best wants a contract larger than their other quarterbacks. In another couple years, if a quarterback such as the Kaepernick or Cam Newton wins a Super Bowl in the final year of their contract, it would not be a surprise if they received the next largest contract in NFL history, possibly 6 years for $130 million, in NFL history. The only possible way to address this problem in the time of the quarterback is to cap player contracts the same way that rookie contracts are capped. This solution is highly unlikely because the League would face resistance from the Players’ Union, possibly in the form of a players strike, and a strike is an experience that the League, the owners, the players, and the fans would not want to experience again. Thus, teams are going to continue spending more to acquire or retain championship quarterbacks, even at the expense of the larger team.

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